The Red Sox's Rotation Battle: A Cutthroat Competition
The Boston Red Sox are back with a bang, determined to leave their disappointing three-year slump behind. After an encouraging 2025 season that saw them return to the playoffs, the team is eyeing a World Series run in 2026. But here's where it gets controversial: their starting rotation, arguably the best in baseball, is also a source of uncertainty.
This offseason has been a whirlwind of activity. Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow has been busy, making a league-high 12 trades that have transformed the pitching staff and cleared out some depth players. The Red Sox have also been strategic in their free agency approach, signing right-hander Ranger Suarez after missing out on top target Alex Bregman.
As pitchers and catchers prepare to report, the Red Sox still have some key roster decisions to make. They need another infield bat, and their outfield picture is a puzzle with missing pieces. Additionally, they have an abundance of starting pitchers but a shortage of traditional relievers.
Amidst this uncertainty, one thing is certain: the Red Sox's roster will undergo significant changes before Opening Day. So, let's dive into our first projection of the Red Sox's 26-man roster for the upcoming season.
Starting Rotation
The first four spots in the rotation seem set: Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray, and Brayan Bello. But the fifth spot is up for grabs, and it's a battle that will be closely watched during spring training.
There are six starters with a realistic chance of making the opening day rotation: Johan Oviedo, Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval, Kyle Harrison, Connelly Early, and Payton Tolle. While Early, Tolle, and Harrison are likely to start in Triple-A, Oviedo, Crawford, and Sandoval are the favorites for the fifth spot.
For now, we're projecting Johan Oviedo as the No. 5 starter. The Red Sox acquired him by giving up top outfield prospect Jhostynxon Garcia, and Oviedo performed well after returning from Tommy John surgery last summer. But here's the part most people miss: the Red Sox have a tough decision to make with the two veterans who don't make the cut.
One option is to go with a six-man rotation, which would keep Crawford or Sandoval in their preferred role and provide extra rest for the others. However, a six-man rotation is often more theory than practice, and with off days in the first four weeks, rest won't be an immediate concern. So, the more likely scenario is that the odd men out will move to the bullpen. Interestingly, Patrick Sandoval could be traded instead, as he has little experience as a reliever and is coming off a year lost to Tommy John surgery. He's also slated to earn a significant sum in 2026, which is a substantial investment for a back-of-the-rotation arm.
Bullpen
While the Red Sox are loaded with starting pitching depth, their bullpen is surprisingly thin. The club currently has only eight traditional relievers on the 40-man roster, leaving little depth in case of injuries before Opening Day.
Assuming Crawford or another starter candidate fills the long-relief role, the rest of the bullpen seems set. Aroldis Chapman will return as the closer, with Garrett Whitlock as the top setup man. Justin Slaten, Greg Weissert, and Zack Kelly have clear paths as mid-leverage options, while Jovani Moran is the favorite to be the lone non-closer left-hander. Ryan Watson, a Rule 5 pick, should also be a lock.
The Red Sox are expected to bolster this group in the coming weeks. They could use another lefty option to compete with Moran and Tyler Samaniego, who is yet to appear in a big league game. Non-roster invitees like lefty Alec Gamboa, coming off a strong season in Korea, and righty Kyle Keller, who signed a minor league deal after a solid run in Japan, will also get a shot to make the team.
Catcher
The Red Sox have strengthened their organizational depth at catcher this winter, but the big league picture remains unchanged. Carlos Narvaez will likely enter the season as the starter, with Connor Wong as his primary backup. Mickey Gasper is effectively third on the depth chart, and Matt Thaiss, Jason Delay, Nate Baez, Nathan Hickey, and Ronald Rosario are non-roster invitees who will shoulder the load throughout the spring.
Infielders
The Red Sox infield is still a work in progress. Craig Breslow has emphasized the need for an impact bat, preferably an infielder who can hit for power from the right side. The acquisition of Willson Contreras from the St. Louis Cardinals fits this profile, but the team still needs at least one more power-hitting infielder to complete the lineup.
Until then, the Red Sox will make do with what they have. Contreras and Trevor Story are locks to start, and the second and third base jobs will likely go to a combination of Romy Gonzalez, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Marcelo Mayer, or Kristian Campbell. My prediction is that Mayer will start at third, with Kiner-Falefa or Gonzalez at second, and the other serving as a utility player. Kristian Campbell will likely start in Triple-A to get regular playing time.
The final bench spot is up for grabs, and Nate Eaton seems to have the edge over David Hamilton, Nick Sogard, Mickey Gasper, Tsung-Che Cheng, and Brendan Rodgers, a former Gold Glove winner who has signed with Boston on a minor league deal.
Outfielders
The Red Sox outfield situation is unique. The team has more starting-caliber outfielders than they can reasonably accommodate. Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran, and Masataka Yoshida all bat left-handed, so there aren't any sensible platoon options. Additionally, the club has limited outfield depth behind these five, with Kristian Campbell arguably the best choice, but he needs regular playing time.
Romy Gonzalez and Nate Eaton can also play outfield, but if one of the five 'starters' takes up a bench spot, the Red Sox will have fewer reserves available for utility duties. Braiden Ward, a non-roster invitee acquired in the Brennan Bernardino trade, is probably the next outfield option.
Expect some roster shakeups before Opening Day. The Red Sox might finally make the long-hypothesized Duran or Abreu trade, or they could find a taker for Yoshida. Even if they don't move one of their main outfielders, adding a right-handed bench outfielder to replace Rob Refsnyder would be a smart move.
The Red Sox have a lot to figure out over the next month and a half. With an incomplete infield picture and an odd outfield situation, the team has some challenging decisions to make. But with a strong starting rotation and a determined mindset, the Red Sox are poised to make a serious run at the World Series.
